Editorials > Will Cloverfield Bomb?

Speculation is rampant around the net on whether or not JJ Abrams's monster movie Cloverfield will be worth all of the internet word of mouth it's accumulated over the past six months. Or, as our colleagues over at TheMovieBlog have asked, "Will Cloverfield be the next Snakes on a Plane?" Well, in some ways it's a fair comparison, considering the internet sensation Snakes was just before its release. Likewise, Cloverfield has had everyone guessing since the trailer was released last summer. But there are some big differences.

Snakes on a Plane was released on August 18th, 2006 along with The Illusionist, Accepted, and the usual array of summer blockbuster holdovers. Cloverfield is being released in January against Mad Money and 27 Dresses and some average-quality fare that didn't even make that much money last weekend. Notice, while the female market is cornered by the two lady-oriented comedies, there's nowhere for the crucial young male audience to go. In my opinion, they'll go see Cloverfield.

Another thing to consider is that while Snakes on the Plane was getting attention for its camp-value, Cloverfield is being highly anticipated because it might actually be a really well-made "monster vs NYC" film. It's true, people will see just about anything, but audiences are still more likely to pay nine dollars to see a film they believe might be good (right or wrong), than just another novelty flick.

I don't necessarily think the film will make $40-50 million in one weekend, but it's not going to bomb either. The internet buzz mixed with there being nothing else in wide release for men to see this weekend is going to make this a moderate success. And considering how cheap the film was to make (about $30 million), Abrams is definitely looking at a profit.

-David Morgan